Pregame predictions

What does EWA expect next?

Win probability and projected margin from the same roster-aware EWA aggregate documented on methodology. These are model expectations against the league baseline, not betting advice — the methodology page documents an ~8 pp accuracy gap to Vegas pooled across the rolling-origin folds.

Generated Apr 28, 8:36 PM

Wed, Apr 29 3 games

Projected margin: ORL by 1.4

Projected margin: CLE by 6.8

Projected margin: LAL by 0.8

Thu, Apr 30 4 games

Projected margin: BOS by 1.9

Projected margin: NYK by 0.5

Projected margin: POR by 6.8

Projected margin: DEN by 2.0

Fri, May 1 3 games

Projected margin: ORL by 5.6

Projected margin: CLE by 2.6

Projected margin: HOU by 3.4

Sat, May 2 4 games

Projected margin: BOS by 6.1

Projected margin: NYK by 4.6

Projected margin: POR by 2.6

Projected margin: DEN by 6.2

Sun, May 3 3 games

Projected margin: ORL by 1.4

Projected margin: CLE by 6.8

Projected margin: LAL by 0.8

How to read this. Each game shows the model's home and away win probability and the projected point margin. Predictions come from a ridge-regression EWA fit on every available NBA possession, with each team's aggregate computed over its most recent 30 games. The model has no minute-projection layer and no information about late scratches, so treat sharp line movement (Vegas, sharp action) as more current than this page.