Validated player impact and group contribution.
Start with players, open groups for pairs and lineups, then use trends to see what changed lately. Alleygorithm turns possession-level win probability into public impact boards with confidence and sample context.
Data through: Mar 19, 2026
559
Players
4,553
Pairs scored
210K
Possessions
Read every board the same way: score first, percentile second, sample third.
What Changed
Biggest recent movers on the board
These cards stay fixed to Last 30 days vs Current season so you can see who is really moving, independent of the hero range selector.
Player riser
Ace Bailey
UTA · up 5th percentile read
+5 pctile
Recent delta+0.059
-0.017 in Last 30 days on 1,285 effective poss
Pair riser
Zion Williamson + Jordan Poole
97th percentile · medium confidence
+88 pctile
Recent delta+0.035
+0.025 across 254 effective poss
Team riser
Atlanta Hawks
Top rotation driver: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
ATL
Recent delta+0.011
+0.017 rotation impact with 9 players in the core
Offense and defense leaders
Total impact alone can hide shape. These leaders show who is driving value on offense, on defense, and on both sides at once.
Best offense
LaMelo Ball
Total+0.060
O+0.048D+0.031
Creates the strongest positive impact with the ball.
Best defense
Chet Holmgren
Total+0.080
O+0.007D+0.097
Creates the strongest positive impact on defensive possessions.
Best two-way
Julian Champagnie
Total+0.083
O+0.047D+0.060
Maintains positive value on both sides instead of leaning one-way.
How to use this
Start with the total score, then check the split. That tells you whether a player is winning with offensive creation, defensive resistance, or a stable two-way mix.
This is usually more actionable than a homepage-wide distribution chart because it helps you compare archetypes immediately.
The deeper player and team pages already carry these splits. The homepage should expose them too.
Top pairs driving winning
Raw pair contribution per 100 possessions. Surplus stays visible as secondary context.
#1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Chet Holmgren
4,346 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.029Surplus
-0.015#2
Isaiah Hartenstein + Chet Holmgren
2,508 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.028Surplus
+0.000#3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Cason Wallace
4,618 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.028Surplus
-0.007#4
Chet Holmgren + Cason Wallace
4,533 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.027Surplus
-0.003#5
Dyson Daniels + CJ McCollum
1,897 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.027Surplus
+0.007#6
Zach Edey + Jaylen Wells
789 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.027Surplus
+0.022#7
RJ Barrett + Jamison Battle
302 possessions · medium confidence
Contribution
+0.026Surplus
+0.016#8
Onyeka Okongwu + CJ McCollum
1,938 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.025Surplus
+0.014#9
Jalen Duren + Ausar Thompson
4,116 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.025Surplus
-0.008#10
Julian Champagnie + Victor Wembanyama
4,334 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.024Surplus
-0.013#11
Isaiah Hartenstein + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2,281 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.024Surplus
-0.009#12
Luguentz Dort + Chet Holmgren
4,280 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.024Surplus
-0.003#13
Cade Cunningham + Ausar Thompson
4,819 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.024Surplus
-0.007#14
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Jalen Williams
1,908 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.023Surplus
-0.009#15
OG Anunoby + Jose Alvarado
617 possessions · high confidence
Contribution
+0.023Surplus
+0.014| # | Pair | Win Contrib | Surplus | Poss | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Chet Holmgren | +0.029 | -0.015 | 4346 | A+ |
| 2 |  Isaiah Hartenstein Chet Holmgren | +0.028 | +0.000 | 2508 | A+ |
| 3 |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Cason Wallace | +0.028 | -0.007 | 4618 | A+ |
| 4 | Chet Holmgren Cason Wallace | +0.027 | -0.003 | 4533 | A+ |
| 5 |   Dyson Daniels CJ McCollum | +0.027 | +0.007 | 1897 | A+ |
| 6 |   Zach Edey Jaylen Wells | +0.027 | +0.022 | 789 | A+ |
| 7 |   RJ Barrett Jamison Battle | +0.026 | +0.016 | 302 | A+ |
| 8 |  Onyeka Okongwu CJ McCollum | +0.025 | +0.014 | 1938 | A+ |
| 9 |   Jalen Duren Ausar Thompson | +0.025 | -0.008 | 4116 | A+ |
| 10 |  Julian Champagnie Victor Wembanyama | +0.024 | -0.013 | 4334 | A+ |
| 11 | Isaiah Hartenstein Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +0.024 | -0.009 | 2281 | A+ |
| 12 |  Luguentz Dort Chet Holmgren | +0.024 | -0.003 | 4280 | A+ |
| 13 |  Cade Cunningham Ausar Thompson | +0.024 | -0.007 | 4819 | A+ |
| 14 |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Jalen Williams | +0.023 | -0.009 | 1908 | A+ |
| 15 |   OG Anunoby Jose Alvarado | +0.023 | +0.014 | 617 | A+ |
Individual impact
Total win contribution with offensive and defensive split
1OKCO+0.039D+0.088
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
+0.098A+
2SASO+0.047D+0.060
Julian Champagnie
+0.083A+
3OKCO+0.007D+0.097
Chet Holmgren
+0.080A+
4
DETO+0.032D+0.064
Ausar Thompson
+0.073A+
5SASO+0.026D+0.063
Victor Wembanyama
+0.065A+
6
LALO+0.024D+0.050
Marcus Smart
+0.064A+
7
MINO+0.034D+0.044
Donte DiVincenzo
+0.063A+
8
SASO+0.013D+0.067
Devin Vassell
+0.063A+
9CHAO+0.048D+0.031
LaMelo Ball
+0.060A+
10
DENO+0.033D+0.042
Nikola Jokić
+0.059A+
Observed lineups
Best 5-man groups by observed contribution, with Off/Def context
#1
Wendell Carter Jr. · Desmond Bane · Franz Wagner · Jalen Suggs · Anthony Black
123 possO+1.119D+1.487Surplus +0.625
A++0.780
Win contrib / 100
#2
Bobby Portis · Kevin Porter Jr. · Jericho Sims · Ryan Rollins · AJ Green
139 possO+0.723D+1.289Surplus +0.642
A++0.642
Win contrib / 100
#3
Isaiah Hartenstein · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Chet Holmgren · Cason Wallace · Ajay Mitchell
204 possO+0.943D+0.530Surplus +0.259
A++0.526
Win contrib / 100
#4
Isaiah Hartenstein · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Luguentz Dort · Chet Holmgren · Cason Wallace
679 possO+0.600D+0.449Surplus +0.210
A++0.486
Win contrib / 100
#5
Sidy Cissoko · Toumani Camara · Donovan Clingan · Jrue Holiday · Jerami Grant
124 possO+1.207D+0.353Surplus +0.464
A++0.483
Win contrib / 100