Player impact + chemistry
See who actually drives wins and which players work together.
Alleygorithm measures NBA player impact, pair chemistry, and lineup context from every possession of the last three seasons.
Use case 1
Who's actually driving wins?
Start from the player board, then open any player page for percentile, offense and defense split, and game-by-game context.
Live example
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
100th percentile · OKC
Open player board
Use case 2
Which players genuinely work together?
Measure pair and lineup chemistry by comparing actual on-court output with what you'd expect from the individual players.
Live example
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Chet Holmgren
5,296 possessions
Surplus
-0.012Open groups
Use case 3
Where does their impact actually come from?
Open a player page to move from total wins into offense, defense, pair results, and game-by-game context.
Start here
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
O+0.045D+0.064
Open a player page
What we do not do
Alleygorithm is not a prediction tool. We do not project tonight's game or player props. We measure what already happened so you can study impact and chemistry with context.
Change the range
Returning users can switch between current season, recent form, and longer context here.
What Changed
Biggest recent movers on the board
These cards stay fixed to Last 30 days vs Current season so you can see who is really moving, independent of the range control above.
Player riser
Jarace Walker
IND · up 20th percentile read
+20 pctile
Recent delta+0.045
-0.004 in Last 30 days on 702 effective poss
Pair riser
Andrew Nembhard + Ben Sheppard
88th percentile · medium confidence
+85 pctile
Recent delta+0.016
+0.004 across 219 effective poss
Team riser
Indiana Pacers
Top rotation driver: Jay Huff
IND
Recent delta+0.006
-0.001 rotation impact with 9 players in the core
Offense and defense leaders
Estimated wins is the first read. These leaders show where that value is coming from on offense, on defense, and across both sides at once.
Best offense
A+
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Est. wins+7.4
O+0.045D+0.064
Creates the strongest positive impact with the ball.
Best defense
A+Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Est. wins+7.4
O+0.045D+0.064
Creates the strongest positive impact on defensive possessions.
Best two-way
A+Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Est. wins+7.4
O+0.045D+0.064
Maintains positive value on both sides instead of leaning one-way.
Volume vs. value
Who drives winning with their minutes?
Possessions on the floor versus estimated wins added. Top-right is the sweet spot: heavy minutes and positive impact. Dot size scales with total wins added.
High confidenceMediumLow|Larger dot = more wins added|Dashed line = median possessions
Impact Archetypes
Who leads each role?
Role-decomposed impact from every possession. Each player's value broken down by what they actually do — score, pass, rebound, or protect the rim.
Top pairs driving winning
Estimated wins first, with Off/Def shape visible and impact rate kept secondary.
#2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Chet Holmgren
5,296 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.2Impact / 100
+0.023O+0.026D+0.025
#9
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Luguentz Dort
5,697 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.1Impact / 100
+0.019O+0.018D+0.023
#17
Duncan Robinson + Ausar Thompson
5,793 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.1Impact / 100
+0.018O+0.021D+0.019
#5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Cason Wallace
5,336 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.019O+0.022D+0.021
#4
Jalen Duren + Ausar Thompson
5,263 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.020O+0.021D+0.023
#23
Duncan Robinson + Jalen Duren
5,786 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.018O+0.020D+0.019
#10
Julian Champagnie + Victor Wembanyama
5,349 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.019O+0.020D+0.020
#71
Jamal Murray + Nikola Jokić
7,539 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.013O+0.011D+0.016
#7
Luguentz Dort + Chet Holmgren
5,048 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.019O+0.021D+0.021
#16
Ausar Thompson + Tobias Harris
5,113 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.018O+0.022D+0.019
#8
Chet Holmgren + Cason Wallace
4,930 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.019O+0.022D+0.020
#22
Cade Cunningham + Ausar Thompson
5,170 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.018O+0.020D+0.019
#18
Jalen Duren + Tobias Harris
4,896 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.018O+0.021D+0.020
#29
Victor Wembanyama + Stephon Castle
5,239 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.017O+0.017D+0.020
#34
Duncan Robinson + Tobias Harris
5,209 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.8Impact / 100
+0.016O+0.020D+0.017
| # | Pair | Est. wins | Off / Def | Poss | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Chet Holmgren | +1.2 | O+0.026D+0.025 | 5296 | A+ |
| 2 |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Luguentz Dort | +1.1 | O+0.018D+0.023 | 5697 | A+ |
| 3 |   Duncan Robinson Ausar Thompson | +1.1 | O+0.021D+0.019 | 5793 | A+ |
| 4 |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Cason Wallace | +1.0 | O+0.022D+0.021 | 5336 | A+ |
| 5 |  Jalen Duren Ausar Thompson | +1.0 | O+0.021D+0.023 | 5263 | A+ |
| 6 | Duncan Robinson Jalen Duren | +1.0 | O+0.020D+0.019 | 5786 | A+ |
| 7 |   Julian Champagnie Victor Wembanyama | +1.0 | O+0.020D+0.020 | 5349 | A+ |
| 8 |   Jamal Murray Nikola Jokić | +1.0 | O+0.011D+0.016 | 7539 | A+ |
| 9 | Luguentz Dort Chet Holmgren | +1.0 | O+0.021D+0.021 | 5048 | A+ |
| 10 |  Ausar Thompson Tobias Harris | +0.9 | O+0.022D+0.019 | 5113 | A+ |
| 11 | Chet Holmgren Cason Wallace | +0.9 | O+0.022D+0.020 | 4930 | A+ |
| 12 |  Cade Cunningham Ausar Thompson | +0.9 | O+0.020D+0.019 | 5170 | A+ |
| 13 | Jalen Duren Tobias Harris | +0.9 | O+0.021D+0.020 | 4896 | A+ |
| 14 |  Victor Wembanyama Stephon Castle | +0.9 | O+0.017D+0.020 | 5239 | A+ |
| 15 | Duncan Robinson Tobias Harris | +0.8 | O+0.020D+0.017 | 5209 | A+ |
Individual impact
Estimated wins added with offensive and defensive split
1OKCO+0.045D+0.064
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
+7.4A+
2OKCO+0.044D+0.052
Chet Holmgren
+5.6A+
3
SASO+0.042D+0.037
Julian Champagnie
+5.5A+
4
MINO+0.036D+0.031
Donte DiVincenzo
+5.4A+
5
DETO+0.042D+0.050
Ausar Thompson
+5.1A+
6
DENO+0.028D+0.034
Nikola Jokić
+4.7A+
7
HOUO+0.018D+0.032
Amen Thompson
+4.4A+
8
ATLO+0.019D+0.028
Dyson Daniels
+4.1A+
9
ORLO+0.009D+0.035
Desmond Bane
+4.1A+
10
SASO+0.022D+0.041
Devin Vassell
+3.8A+
Observed lineups
Best 5-man groups by estimated wins added, with Off/Def context
#1
Miles Bridges · LaMelo Ball · Moussa Diabaté · Brandon Miller · Kon Knueppel
2,172 possO+0.260D+0.255Surplus +0.121
A++5.6
Est. wins added
#2
Duncan Robinson · Cade Cunningham · Jalen Duren · Ausar Thompson · Tobias Harris
2,256 possO+0.229D+0.162Surplus +0.035
A++4.5
Est. wins added
#3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · Onyeka Okongwu · Jalen Johnson · Dyson Daniels · CJ McCollum
1,844 possO+0.197D+0.185Surplus +0.101
A+3.6
Est. wins added
#4
Josh Okogie · Alperen Sengun · Jabari Smith Jr. · Amen Thompson · Kevin Durant
1,638 possO+0.147D+0.191Surplus +0.090
A+3.0
Est. wins added
#5
Duncan Robinson · Jalen Duren · Ausar Thompson · Daniss Jenkins · Tobias Harris
749 possO+0.395D+0.459Surplus +0.229
A++3.0
Est. wins added