2025–26 NBA season
See who actually drives winning.
Player, pair, and lineup impact measured from every NBA possession.
Data through: Apr 20, 2026
What Changed
Biggest recent movers on the board
These cards stay fixed to Last 30 days vs Current season so you can see who is really moving, independent of the hero range selector.
Player riser
Jarace Walker
IND · up 13th percentile read
+12 pctile
Recent delta+0.043
-0.006 in Last 30 days on 846 effective poss
Pair riser
Andrew Nembhard + Ben Sheppard
87th percentile · medium confidence
+84 pctile
Recent delta+0.016
+0.004 across 235 effective poss
Team riser
Indiana Pacers
Top rotation driver: Jay Huff
IND
Recent delta+0.006
-0.002 rotation impact with 9 players in the core
Offense and defense leaders
Estimated wins is the first read. These leaders show where that value is coming from on offense, on defense, and across both sides at once.
Best offense
A+
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Est. wins+7.4
O+0.045D+0.064
Creates the strongest positive impact with the ball.
Best defense
A+Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Est. wins+7.4
O+0.045D+0.064
Creates the strongest positive impact on defensive possessions.
Best two-way
A+Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Est. wins+7.4
O+0.045D+0.064
Maintains positive value on both sides instead of leaning one-way.
Volume vs. value
Who drives winning with their minutes?
Possessions on the floor versus estimated wins added. Top-right is the sweet spot: heavy minutes and positive impact. Dot size scales with total wins added.
High confidenceMediumLow|Larger dot = more wins added|Dashed line = median possessions
Impact Archetypes
Who leads each role?
Role-decomposed impact from every possession. Each player's value broken down by what they actually do — score, pass, rebound, or protect the rim.
Top pairs driving winning
Estimated wins first, with Off/Def shape visible and impact rate kept secondary.
#2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Chet Holmgren
5,296 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.2Impact / 100
+0.023O+0.026D+0.024
#11
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Luguentz Dort
5,697 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.1Impact / 100
+0.019O+0.018D+0.023
#17
Duncan Robinson + Ausar Thompson
5,793 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.1Impact / 100
+0.018O+0.021D+0.019
#6
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Cason Wallace
5,336 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.019O+0.022D+0.021
#4
Jalen Duren + Ausar Thompson
5,263 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.020O+0.021D+0.023
#23
Duncan Robinson + Jalen Duren
5,786 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.018O+0.020D+0.019
#9
Julian Champagnie + Victor Wembanyama
5,327 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.019O+0.020D+0.021
#7
Luguentz Dort + Chet Holmgren
5,048 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.019O+0.021D+0.021
#16
Ausar Thompson + Tobias Harris
5,113 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.018O+0.022D+0.019
#81
Jamal Murray + Nikola Jokić
7,394 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.013O+0.011D+0.015
#8
Chet Holmgren + Cason Wallace
4,930 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.019O+0.022D+0.020
#22
Cade Cunningham + Ausar Thompson
5,170 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.018O+0.020D+0.019
#18
Jalen Duren + Tobias Harris
4,896 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.018O+0.021D+0.020
#30
Victor Wembanyama + Stephon Castle
5,211 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.017O+0.017D+0.020
#51
De'Aaron Fox + Julian Champagnie
6,036 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.015O+0.016D+0.015
| # | Pair | Est. wins | Off / Def | Poss | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Chet Holmgren | +1.2 | O+0.026D+0.024 | 5296 | A+ |
| 2 |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Luguentz Dort | +1.1 | O+0.018D+0.023 | 5697 | A+ |
| 3 |   Duncan Robinson Ausar Thompson | +1.1 | O+0.021D+0.019 | 5793 | A+ |
| 4 |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Cason Wallace | +1.0 | O+0.022D+0.021 | 5336 | A+ |
| 5 |  Jalen Duren Ausar Thompson | +1.0 | O+0.021D+0.023 | 5263 | A+ |
| 6 | Duncan Robinson Jalen Duren | +1.0 | O+0.020D+0.019 | 5786 | A+ |
| 7 |   Julian Champagnie Victor Wembanyama | +1.0 | O+0.020D+0.021 | 5327 | A+ |
| 8 | Luguentz Dort Chet Holmgren | +1.0 | O+0.021D+0.021 | 5048 | A+ |
| 9 |  Ausar Thompson Tobias Harris | +0.9 | O+0.022D+0.019 | 5113 | A+ |
| 10 |   Jamal Murray Nikola Jokić | +0.9 | O+0.011D+0.015 | 7394 | A+ |
| 11 | Chet Holmgren Cason Wallace | +0.9 | O+0.022D+0.020 | 4930 | A+ |
| 12 |  Cade Cunningham Ausar Thompson | +0.9 | O+0.020D+0.019 | 5170 | A+ |
| 13 | Jalen Duren Tobias Harris | +0.9 | O+0.021D+0.020 | 4896 | A+ |
| 14 |  Victor Wembanyama Stephon Castle | +0.9 | O+0.017D+0.020 | 5211 | A+ |
| 15 |  De'Aaron Fox Julian Champagnie | +0.9 | O+0.016D+0.015 | 6036 | A+ |
Individual impact
Estimated wins added with offensive and defensive split
1OKCO+0.045D+0.064
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
+7.4A+
2OKCO+0.044D+0.052
Chet Holmgren
+5.6A+
3
SASO+0.044D+0.037
Julian Champagnie
+5.5A+
4
DETO+0.042D+0.050
Ausar Thompson
+5.1A+
5
MINO+0.034D+0.029
Donte DiVincenzo
+4.9A+
6
DENO+0.029D+0.034
Nikola Jokić
+4.6A+
7
ATLO+0.022D+0.029
Dyson Daniels
+4.4A+
8
HOUO+0.016D+0.033
Amen Thompson
+4.3A+
9
ORLO+0.009D+0.034
Desmond Bane
+4.1A+
10
SASO+0.023D+0.041
Devin Vassell
+3.9A+
Observed lineups
Best 5-man groups by estimated wins added, with Off/Def context
#1
Miles Bridges · LaMelo Ball · Moussa Diabaté · Brandon Miller · Kon Knueppel
2,172 possO+0.260D+0.254Surplus +0.121
A++5.6
Est. wins added
#2
Duncan Robinson · Cade Cunningham · Jalen Duren · Ausar Thompson · Tobias Harris
2,256 possO+0.229D+0.161Surplus +0.035
A++4.5
Est. wins added
#3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · Onyeka Okongwu · Jalen Johnson · Dyson Daniels · CJ McCollum
1,801 possO+0.215D+0.195Surplus +0.112
A++3.7
Est. wins added
#4
Josh Okogie · Alperen Sengun · Jabari Smith Jr. · Amen Thompson · Kevin Durant
1,592 possO+0.154D+0.200Surplus +0.096
A+3.0
Est. wins added
#5
Duncan Robinson · Jalen Duren · Ausar Thompson · Daniss Jenkins · Tobias Harris
749 possO+0.395D+0.459Surplus +0.229
A++3.0
Est. wins added