2025–26 NBA season
See who actually drives winning.
Player, pair, and lineup impact measured from every NBA possession.
Data through: Mar 19, 2026
What Changed
Biggest recent movers on the board
These cards stay fixed to Last 30 days vs Current season so you can see who is really moving, independent of the hero range selector.
Player riser
Ace Bailey
UTA · up 5th percentile read
+5 pctile
Recent delta+0.059
-0.017 in Last 30 days on 1,285 effective poss
Pair riser
Zion Williamson + Jordan Poole
97th percentile · medium confidence
+88 pctile
Recent delta+0.035
+0.025 across 254 effective poss
Team riser
Atlanta Hawks
Top rotation driver: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
ATL
Recent delta+0.011
+0.017 rotation impact with 9 players in the core
Offense and defense leaders
Estimated wins is the first read. These leaders show where that value is coming from on offense, on defense, and across both sides at once.
Best offense
LaMelo Ball
Est. wins+4.0
O+0.048D+0.031
Creates the strongest positive impact with the ball.
Best defense
Chet Holmgren
Est. wins+6.0
O+0.007D+0.097
Creates the strongest positive impact on defensive possessions.
Best two-way
Julian Champagnie
Est. wins+6.8
O+0.047D+0.060
Maintains positive value on both sides instead of leaning one-way.
Top pairs driving winning
Estimated wins first, with Off/Def shape visible and impact rate kept secondary.
#3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Cason Wallace
4,618 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.3Impact / 100
+0.028O+0.024D+0.036
#1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Chet Holmgren
4,346 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.3Impact / 100
+0.029O+0.030D+0.035
#4
Chet Holmgren + Cason Wallace
4,533 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.2Impact / 100
+0.027O+0.033D+0.027
#42
Duncan Robinson + Cade Cunningham
5,703 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.1Impact / 100
+0.020O+0.024D+0.019
#13
Cade Cunningham + Ausar Thompson
4,819 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.1Impact / 100
+0.024O+0.029D+0.023
#33
Cade Cunningham + Jalen Duren
5,456 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.1Impact / 100
+0.021O+0.025D+0.019
#17
Duncan Robinson + Jalen Duren
4,873 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.1Impact / 100
+0.023O+0.024D+0.026
#20
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Luguentz Dort
4,791 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.1Impact / 100
+0.022O+0.015D+0.034
#16
Duncan Robinson + Ausar Thompson
4,656 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.1Impact / 100
+0.023O+0.028D+0.022
#10
Julian Champagnie + Victor Wembanyama
4,334 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.1Impact / 100
+0.024O+0.025D+0.029
#12
Luguentz Dort + Chet Holmgren
4,280 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.024O+0.026D+0.027
#9
Jalen Duren + Ausar Thompson
4,116 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.025O+0.030D+0.025
#27
Victor Wembanyama + Stephon Castle
4,505 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+1.0Impact / 100
+0.021O+0.016D+0.031
#24
Jalen Duren + Tobias Harris
3,911 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.022O+0.025D+0.024
#162
Immanuel Quickley + Scottie Barnes
6,832 possessions · high confidence
Est. wins
+0.9Impact / 100
+0.013O+0.016D+0.011
| # | Pair | Est. wins | Off / Def | Poss | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Cason Wallace | +1.3 | O+0.024D+0.036 | 4618 | A+ |
| 2 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Chet Holmgren | +1.3 | O+0.030D+0.035 | 4346 | A+ |
| 3 | Chet Holmgren Cason Wallace | +1.2 | O+0.033D+0.027 | 4533 | A+ |
| 4 |   Duncan Robinson Cade Cunningham | +1.1 | O+0.024D+0.019 | 5703 | A+ |
| 5 |  Cade Cunningham Ausar Thompson | +1.1 | O+0.029D+0.023 | 4819 | A+ |
| 6 |  Cade Cunningham Jalen Duren | +1.1 | O+0.025D+0.019 | 5456 | A+ |
| 7 | Duncan Robinson Jalen Duren | +1.1 | O+0.024D+0.026 | 4873 | A+ |
| 8 |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Luguentz Dort | +1.1 | O+0.015D+0.034 | 4791 | A+ |
| 9 | Duncan Robinson Ausar Thompson | +1.1 | O+0.028D+0.022 | 4656 | A+ |
| 10 |  Julian Champagnie Victor Wembanyama | +1.1 | O+0.025D+0.029 | 4334 | A+ |
| 11 | Luguentz Dort Chet Holmgren | +1.0 | O+0.026D+0.027 | 4280 | A+ |
| 12 | Jalen Duren Ausar Thompson | +1.0 | O+0.030D+0.025 | 4116 | A+ |
| 13 |  Victor Wembanyama Stephon Castle | +1.0 | O+0.016D+0.031 | 4505 | A+ |
| 14 |  Jalen Duren Tobias Harris | +0.9 | O+0.025D+0.024 | 3911 | A+ |
| 15 |   Immanuel Quickley Scottie Barnes | +0.9 | O+0.016D+0.011 | 6832 | A+ |
Individual impact
Estimated wins added with offensive and defensive split
1OKCO+0.039D+0.088
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
+8.2A+
2SASO+0.047D+0.060
Julian Champagnie
+6.8A+
3OKCO+0.007D+0.097
Chet Holmgren
+6.0A+
4
MINO+0.034D+0.044
Donte DiVincenzo
+5.5A+
5
ORLO+0.014D+0.051
Desmond Bane
+5.3A+
6
CLEO+0.042D+0.025
Donovan Mitchell
+4.8A+
7
DETO+0.032D+0.064
Ausar Thompson
+4.6A+
8
DENO+0.033D+0.042
Nikola Jokić
+4.6A+
9
SASO+0.013D+0.067
Devin Vassell
+4.6A+
10DETO+0.020D+0.047
Cade Cunningham
+4.5A+
Observed lineups
Best 5-man groups by estimated wins added, with Off/Def context
#1
Duncan Robinson · Cade Cunningham · Jalen Duren · Ausar Thompson · Tobias Harris
2,117 possO+0.397D+0.162Surplus +0.050
A++6.1
Est. wins added
#2
Miles Bridges · LaMelo Ball · Moussa Diabaté · Brandon Miller · Kon Knueppel
1,505 possO+0.439D+0.209Surplus +0.162
A++5.0
Est. wins added
#3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · Onyeka Okongwu · Jalen Johnson · Dyson Daniels · CJ McCollum
943 possO+0.520D+0.432Surplus +0.348
A++4.3
Est. wins added
#4
Josh Okogie · Alperen Sengun · Jabari Smith Jr. · Amen Thompson · Kevin Durant
1,465 possO+0.276D+0.186Surplus +0.081
A+3.4
Est. wins added
#5
Isaiah Hartenstein · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Luguentz Dort · Chet Holmgren · Cason Wallace
679 possO+0.600D+0.449Surplus +0.210
A++3.3
Est. wins added