Who contributes to winning — at every level.
Alleygorithm is a validated win-probability system for player impact and group contribution. It measures who drives winning, which combinations have actually worked, and how much confidence to place in the sample.
Find who drives winning on their own minutes.
See which duos have actually driven winning together.
Move from names to groups with the same contribution language.
Read The Product
The model is only useful if the interface teaches you how to read it.
Alleygorithm is designed around three questions: who drives winning, which groups have actually contributed, and how much confidence you should place in the answer.
Start with win contribution
This is the public-facing impact score: a possession-level winning signal, normalized per 100 possessions and stabilized for public use.
Use group contribution first
Pairs and lineups are most useful as contribution views: which combinations have actually driven winning together. Surplus is an advanced read, not the default story.
Read possessions with confidence
Small-sample groups can look extreme. Possessions, shrinkage, and confidence badges help separate story-worthy signal from early noise.
Product Flow
Start with the leaderboard. Stay for the combinations.
Player rankings
Identify who moves win probability, then drill into percentile, grade, and pair context.
Pair explorer
See which combinations have actually driven winning together, then use surplus as secondary context.
Lineup context
Move from stars to combinations, with the same scoring language across pairs, trios, quartets, and full units.
Methodology
Understand how WPA, attribution, shrinkage, and confidence fit together before reading the leaderboard as truth.
How it works
LSTM trained on play-by-play data predicts home win probability at every event. WPA = change per possession.
Ridge regression assigns WPA to players (coefficients = Shapley values). Cross-season r=0.22.
Score players, pairs, trios, quartets, lineups. Empirical Bayes shrinkage. Confidence tiers.